TY - JOUR T1 - Afet Sonrası Elektronik Haberleşme Sürekliliğinde Yapay Zekâ Destekli Katmanlı Kapasite Planlaması TT - AI-SUPPORTED LAYERED CAPACITY PLANNING FOR POST-DISASTER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION CONTINUITY AU - Taştekin, Emrehan PY - 2026 DA - June Y2 - 2026 DO - 10.66643/btkdergi.1924979 JF - Bilgi Teknolojileri ve İletişim Dergisi JO - BTK Dergi PB - Bilgi Teknolojileri ve İletişim Kurumu WT - DergiPark SN - 2980-1311 SP - 101 EP - 123 VL - 4 IS - 1 LA - tr AB - Afet sonrasında haberleşme altyapısının çökmesi yalnızca teknik bir arıza üretmez; sağlık, lojistik, arama-kurtarma ve kamu koordinasyonunun aynı anda zayıflamasına yol açar. Bu çalışma, ilk 24 saatte elektronik haberleşme sürekliliğinin nasıl yeniden kurulacağına odaklanan yapay zekâ destekli katmanlı bir kapasite planlama modeli önermektedir. Model, mobil baz istasyonları, taşınabilir uydu düğümleri ve İHA rölelerini tek bir karar mimarisinde bir araya getirmektedir. Yöntem kısmında, literatürde tanımlanan dayanıklılık ilkeleri ile endüstri mühendisliğinin kapasite planlama, çok ölçütlü önceliklendirme ve kısıt altında kaynak tahsisi araçları birleştirilmiştir. Sayısal deney, talep artışı, kritik hizmet yoğunluğu, erişilebilirlik ve siber risk göstergeleriyle tanımlanan 12 bölgeli sentetik bir karar ortamında yürütülmüştür. Yoğun kentsel deprem, bölgesel enerji ve erişim kesintisi ile birleşik siber-fiziksel kriz olmak üzere üç senaryo incelenmiştir. Bulgular, katmanlı stratejinin ortalama 24 saatlik ağırlıklı kapsama oranını yüzde 76,6 düzeyine çıkararak tek katmanlı çözüme göre 3,2 puan, tepkisel yaklaşıma göre 14,2 puan üstünlük sağladığını göstermektedir. İlk 90 dakikada katmanlı yapı yüzde 49,0 kapsama ulaşırken diğer iki yaklaşım yüzde 25,2 düzeyinde kalmaktadır. Performans artışı sınırlı bir maliyet artışıyla elde edilse de siber risk yüzeyinin genişlediği görülmektedir. Çalışma, afet haberleşmesinde yalnızca yeni teknoloji eklemenin değil, doğru kaynak portföyünü doğru anda devreye almanın belirleyici olduğunu ortaya koymakta; ön-konumlandırma, sıfır güven mimarisi ve dijital ikiz tabanlı tatbikatlar için uygulanabilir bir karar çerçevesi sunmaktadır. KW - afet haberleşmesi KW - yapay zekâ destekli karar verme KW - kapasite planlama KW - endüstri mühendisliği KW - İHA röle ağları N2 - The collapse of communication infrastructure after a disaster creates more than a technical outage; it simultaneously weakens healthcare coordination, logistics, search and rescue, and public command functions. This study proposes an AI-supported layered capacity planning model for restoring electronic communication continuity during the first 24 hours after a disruption. The model integrates mobile base stations, portable satellite nodes, and UAV relays within a single decision architecture. Methodologically, it combines resilience principles from the emergency communications literature with industrial engineering tools such as capacity planning, multi-criteria prioritization, and constrained resource allocation. The numerical experiment is conducted in a 12-zone synthetic decision environment defined by demand escalation, critical-service intensity, accessibility, and cyber-risk indicators. Three scenarios are examined: a dense urban earthquake, a regional power and access outage, and a combined cyber-physical crisis. Results show that the layered strategy raises average 24-hour weighted coverage to 76.6%, outperforming the single-layer solution by 3.2 percentage points and the reactive baseline by 14.2 points. In the first 90 minutes, the layered design reaches 49.0% weighted coverage, whereas the other two approaches remain at 25.2%. The performance gain is achieved with a limited cost increase, but the cyber exposure of the operating environment also grows. 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